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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 24th, 2014–Mar 25th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with showers or flurries – 5-10 cm. The freezing level should climb to around 2000 m (or a little higher). Ridge winds are light to moderate from the SW.  Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries – 5-10 cm. The freezing level is around 1500 m and ridge winds are light to moderate from the W-SW. Thursday: Cloudy with flurries. The freezing level is around 1400 m and ridge winds are light.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity on the weekend was primarily reported as loose snow sluffing in steep terrain and a few rider triggered slab avalanches involving the recent storm snow. None of the recent activity has stepped down to deeper persistent weaknesses.

Snowpack Summary

5 - 10 cm of convective snowfall from Saturday night brings snow totals from the last week to 25 - 50cm of light density snow. This makes for 55 - 80cm on top of the March 10th crust. This crust is widespread to 2000m across the region, perhaps even higher on solar aspects. There are reports of the crust being as thick as 15cm in the south of the region, but it varies in thickness and supportability. As you head north in the region where the mountains are higher (and temperatures were colder when the crust was forming), this crust is less likely to exist. If you're heading to the north or the region, it's worth checking out the South Columbia bulletin too.A facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 70 - 200cm, has been highly variable in terms of reactivity but still shows 'sudden' results in some snowpack tests. In areas where the strong and supportive near surface crust exists, triggering this layer has become unlikely. That said, this layer is still difficult to trust and any avalanche at these deeper, persistent interfaces would be large and destructive.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

This problem could become more sensitive to triggering if temperatures rise as forecast on Tuesday. Be particularly cautious in wind loaded and cross-loaded terrain. 
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>Watch for clues of warming and back off if you observe, pinwheeling, sluffing off of cliffs and/or moist surface snow.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

The deeply buried weak layers still show "sudden" results in snowpack tests. Triggers for large avalanches on these layers include cornice falls, solar warming, or hitting the wrong place in a thin snowpack area.
Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5