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Avalanche Forecast

Apr 5th, 2014–Apr 6th, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

What's going to happen to the snowpack if it warms up significantly over the next couple of days? Read a discussion here...

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions, bringing light-moderate precipitation amounts, rising freezing levels and mostly cloudy skies through Monday. Tuesday will show the brunt of the frontal system and bring moderate-heavy precipitation.Sunday: Freezing levels rising to 1500 m. Mostly cloudy skies with possible sunny periods. Alpine temperatures near 1.0 degree. Ridgetop winds generally light from the SW with strong gusts. Monday/ Tuesday: Freezing levels rising to 2000 m with no re-freeze overnight. 15-20 mm expected each day and alpine temperatures near 2.0 degrees. Ridgetop winds remain strong from the SW.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, a deep persistent slab avalanche occurred on a NE aspect at 2400 m. It is suspect that it failed on the mid-March interface. Additionally, numerous size 1 storm slab avalanches were easily triggered by the weight of a person on leeward loaded slopes and on slopes that have the recently buried melt-freeze crust.

Snowpack Summary

Higher elevation areas have recently received up to 20 cm of new snow which sits on a variety of old snow surfaces including surface hoar, facets and melt freeze crusts. Isolated wind slabs have formed and a poor bond seem to exist, especially on slopes with a melt-freeze crust.Recent warm temperatures have helped to settle and strengthen the upper snowpack and tests are producing hard resistant planar shears on the late March crust.Persistent weak layers exist lower in the snowpack. The mid-March surface hoar/ crust interface now down 80-110 cm and is decreasing in sensitivity to triggering. The early-March crust/facet layer is down about 100-150 cm and the early February layer is now down close to 200 cm. These layers are largely dormant at this time; however they should remain on your radar as we begin to transition into a warm-up with minimal overnight refreeze through the forecast period. These layers may re-awaken.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and wind has set up storm and wind slab problems on leeward terrain features. They are easily triggered by riders, and could be naturally triggered if the sun shines through, even if its for a short period of time.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain and be weary of solar slopes if the sun shines through.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Three buried weak layers exist in the snowpack. Deep releases have become rare, but I would be concerned about an increased likelihood of a large destructive event during a period of intense warming.
Consider backing off steep, aggressive terrain if the temperature warms considerably or if the sun hits the slope you are riding.>Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried facets and surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 7