Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 31st, 2019 5:07PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

jsmith, Avalanche Canada

South Coast Inland.

Fresh storm slabs will be primed for human triggers. Stick to simple terrain and stay well away from any large avalanche paths.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow; 5-15 cm. / Moderate to strong, southwesterly winds / Low -3/ Freezing level 1200 m.FRIDAY: Snow, 10-20 cm. / Moderate to strong, southwesterly winds / High -3 C / Freezing level 1200 m. SATURDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods / Light, southwesterly winds / High -4 C / Freezing level 500 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm. / Light, southerly winds / High-14 C / Freezing level surface.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches were reported in the region on Wednesday. However, fresh storm slabs reactive to human triggers are expected to form on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

The forecast new snow will cover a variety of snow surfaces. These include crusts on all but northerly aspects, wind-pressed surfaces on northerly aspects in the alpine, and a mixture of surface hoar (weak feathery crystals) and surface facets (sugary grains) in terrain sheltered from wind/sun at treeline and below.Around 30 to 50 cm down is a melt-freeze crust to mountain top on southerly aspects, a crust below around 1700 m on all aspects, and feathery surface hoar in areas sheltered by the wind/sun at treeline elevations. The remainder of the snowpack is currently well-settled and strong in most locations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh storm slabs will be primed for human triggers. Stick to simple terrain and stay well away from any large avalanche paths.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Stay alert to changing conditions with elevation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Around 30 to 50 cm of snow sits above a weak layer of surface hoar. This layer is likely best preserved in shaded and sheltered areas between 1700 m and 2000 m.

Smaller storm slab avalanches in motion could 'step-down' and trigger this layer.Avoid large slopes that would have big consequence if this deeper layer was triggered.

Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.

Elevations: Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 1st, 2019 2:00PM