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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 19th, 2017–Jan 20th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

It will take a few days recent storm snow to settle and bond. A cautious approach is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, light southwest winds, freezing level around 1200 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light winds, freezing level around 1000 m.SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, light winds, freezing level around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, numerous natural and explosive triggered storm slab avalanches in the size 2-3 range were reported on north and east aspects. Avalanches running into lower elevations entrained significant amounts of moist snow. Human triggering avalanches in the storm snow will remain likely on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

A warm wet storm has delivered 20-40 cm of heavy snow with freezing levels up to 1600 m. The new snow has formed a widespread storm slab problem at higher elevations and a loose wet problem at lower elevations. Thicker storm slabs can be found on wind-loaded northeast slopes. Two layers of surface hoar that formed in early January exist in isolated sheltered areas and are now buried about 40 cm deep. Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December persistent weak layer of facets can be found buried about a metre deep and is generally considered dormant, but its status could change with ongoing warming.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Natural storm slab activity may end as the storm snow settles, however, human triggering will remain likely. Avoid large slopes with convexities, and any slope exposed to overhead hazards like cornices.
The new snow will requires several days to settle and stabilize.Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Moist snow at lower elevations is producing loose wet avalanches in steep terrain.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2