Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 16th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Strong winds and new snow sure to obscure visibility to hazards above. Choose your terrain and exposure time wisely.

Summary

Weather Forecast

A new storm is tracking in from the coast and is expected overnight bringing moderate to strong SW-ly winds. A further 10cm is expected overnight Monday and as much as a 30cm possible by the end of the day Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Snow depths are variable between 70 to 140 cm observed in the Icefields. Generally unsupportive below treeline and improving at you approach TL and above. Moderate to strong ridge top winds have created soft slabs on top of a weak snowpack.Â

Avalanche Summary

Field observations have found a very extensive storm cycle on all aspects between 2200 to 3200m ranging from size 2 to 3 running on ground to mid-path. Most recently, 3 significant events on Mt Amery area (just north of Sask River crossing) observed in last 24 hours, sz 3 and sz 2.5's on NE-ly aspects in cross loaded features running on ground.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Anywhere between 85 - 100cm of new snow in the Icefields area. Southerly ridge top winds have picked up and soft slabs are starting to form in the lee. Expect deep trail breaking below treeline.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Recent storm snow has formed touchy slabs.Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Point releases from cliffs and steep smooth surfaces. Ridge top winds have be perfect for creating soft slabs and smaller, but weak cornices over exposed areas. Watch these when climbing even low hazard Ice.

Be very cautious with gully features.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 17th, 2015 4:00PM