Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2016–Feb 27th, 2016
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kootenay Boundary.

Solar radiation is the primary factor driving the hazard this weekend.  Expect conditions to change rapidly if the sun comes out.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

No significant snow in the forecast. Up to 5cm Friday night and another 5-10cm Sunday. Light to moderate ridgetop winds out of the southwest throughout weekend.  Freezing levels spike Friday then cool off to around 1800m for the remainder of the period. For more detailed weather information see https://avalanche.ca/weather

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday two size 1 skier triggered slab avalanches were reported on northerly aspects that failed on a surface hoar layer down 20-25cm.  The elevations of these avalanches were not reported.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and looming. Old wind slabs are well bonded but could fail with daytime heating on solar aspects. The mid February layer is down 30-50cm and is a crust in most areas. This layer is generally well bonded to the overlying persistent slab. However, in isolated areas on northerly aspects at treeline elevations the February 10th surface hoar down 70-100cm is still producing moderate sudden planar shears in compression tests, though it has not been reactive to human triggers. This suggests a classic low probability, high consequence scenario.

Avalanche Problems

Cornices

Avoid cornice threatened slopes if sun comes out.
Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>Cornices become weak with daytime heating. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

This is still a layer to keep in mind, as an avalanche on this layer could be large and destructive.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Wind Slabs

Solar radiation greatly increases the reactivity of wind slabs.
Extra caution needed if sun comes out.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3