Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

There is some model disagreement around the timing and intensity of the next system. 

Sunday night: Snowfall 10-15 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline low around -5 °C.

Monday: Snowfall 20-35 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline high around 0 °C, freezing levels climbing rapidly and could reach over 2000 m by late Monday night.

Monday night: Heavy precipitation continues overnight with 20-40 mm possible with strong southwest wind. Freezing levels around 2000 m.

Tuesday: Snowfall easing during the day, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing levels dropping slightly to 1800 m.

Wednesday: Light snowfall, light to moderate southwest wind, treeline high hovering around zero.

On Saturday a skier remotely triggered a large (size 2) wind slab over a crust just north of the region. Last week riders triggered wind slabs, as well as at least two size 2 persistent slabs involving the mid-January surface hoar layers in the east of the region.

By the end of the day on Monday new storm slabs will have buried highly variable snow surfaces which include wind-affected surfaces in exposed terrain, a thin sun crust on solar aspects which may be faceting, surface hoar in sheltered areas, and/or old storm snow on shaded slopes which may be faceting. 

A weak interface from mid-February was down around 20-30 cm prior to the storm. It consists of a sun crust on solar aspects, facets, and/or surface hoar. This layer was previously only reactive in wind-loaded terrain where a slab had formed but it is expected to become a more widespread problem as the storm progresses and creates a more widespread slab.

Two layers of buried surface hoar from January were down around 40-70 cm prior to the storm. Most recently, this surface hoar was most reactive in sheltered areas around treeline in the east of the region, and appeared to be dormant through the rest of the region. As the storm progresses and more load is added to the snowpack, this surface hoar will get tested and avalanches have the potential to step down to these deeper layers. 

• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.