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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 6th, 2014–Dec 7th, 2014
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Sunday should see a brief lull in the weather before we're hit by an onslaught of strong weather systems next week.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and showers or snow beginning later in the day. Freezing levels should jump up to 2200 m. Winds may rise to strong from the south late in the day. Monday: Cloudy with showers or snow. The freezing level is around 1800 m and winds are moderate from the S-SW. Tuesday: Periods of rain heavy at times. The freezing level is over 2000 m and winds are strong from the south.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no recent reports of avalanches in the past several days; however, I suspect it may be possible to trigger thin new wind slabs in open leeward terrain, particularly in the alpine.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40 cm of moist new snow now covers the previous variable snow surface consisting of surface hoar or facetted snow in sheltered areas, and pockets of old wind slab or a crust (from last weeks rain) in open wind-exposed terrain. The amount of new snow depends on your location and elevation. Winds during the past week were strong variable and blew snow into dense wind slabs on a variety of aspects or cross-loaded gulley features. Fresh new wind slabs are also likely below ridges and terrain features on north and east facing terrain. A solid rain crust is buried 10-40 cm deep up to 2000 m. Another crust that was buried in mid-November is down 40-60 cm. The deeper crust may be associated with a layer of facets above or below. The snow pack depth drops significantly below treeline with essentially no snow below 1600 m.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Moist new snow will form a new storm slab above 1800 m and may not bond well to the previous snow surface. Watch for deeper and more sensitive wind slabs in exposed northwest to east-facing terrain.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Loose wet avalanches are possible in steep open terrain and gullies, especially if there has been recent snow accumulation followed by rain.
Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2