Summary
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Overnight and Tuesday: A moderate to strong Southwest flow is expected to move moisture into the Southern coastal areas overnight. This should bring 5-10 cm of new snow above about 1500 metres combined with strong Southerly alpine winds. The system should move quickly inland bringing 5-10 cm to the mountain highway passes.Wednesday: Overcast with light precipitation and moderate Southerly winds. Freezing levels rising to about 1200 metres during the day and dropping down to about 500 metres overnight.Thursday: Overcast with light winds, flurries, and a chance of sunny breaks in the afternoon
Avalanche Summary
There were a couple of natural size 3.0 avalanches on North -Northeast aspects that ran on the February persistent weak layer. Persistent weak layers may be well preserved on shaded alpine slopes, and may be triggered by heavy loads like cornice falls or storm slabs in motion.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 60cm of snow has fallen in parts of the forecast region in the past 7 days. This storm snow combined with winds continues to produce wind slabs at tree line and above. A well developed sun crust has formed on solar aspects and, prior to this storm, surface hoar formed on shady, sheltered slopes. At lower elevations, (below 1200m) a melt-freeze (or rain) crust can be expected in most areas. Below the storm snow, the snowpack is generally well settled from the recent warm weather. Two persistent weak layers remain a concern but these have become less reactive recently. The early-March crust/facet layer is down roughly 1m and the early February layer is down 1.5m or more. These layers are now deep enough that human-triggering is unlikely, but smaller avalanches or cornices failures have the potential to step down to these layers, and,.... cornices are definitely getting larger these days.
triley,
Avalanche Canada
