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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 30th, 2021–Jan 31st, 2021
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

Moderate to strong southwest wind will continue to form fresh wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and at exposed treeline. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear periods, up to 3 cm new snow, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -7 C, freezing level at 700 m.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, up to 2 cm new snow, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level at 1600 m.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy, 5 cm new snow and 15 cm in the west of the region, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level at 1900 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy, 10 cm new snow and 20 cm in the west of the region, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level at 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose dry avalanches up to size 2 were reported in steep alpine and treeline terrain over the last few days. Small wind slab avalanches were triggered by skiers on Wednesday. 

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of recent snow buried surface hoar and old surfaces. On steep solar aspects a sun crust can be found underneath the new snow. In the alpine and upper treeline, the new snow sits on top of layers of hard wind slab, scoured areas, sastrugi and isolated pockets of soft snow. A hard thick crust is found up to 1900 m. 

A solid mid-pack sits above deeply buried decomposing crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (100-150 cm deep). Avalanche activity on these layers has been sporadic and mostly triggered by large loads such as wind slab avalanches and cornice falls. Though unreactive under the current conditions, steep rocky slopes and shallow snowpacks should still be carefully assessed and approached with caution.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate to strong southwest wind will continue to redistribute the new snow and build wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and at exposed treeline (see this MIN report from Saturday). These slabs will be particularly reactive where they overlie surface hoar. It is uncertain how well the transported snow will bond with old surfaces, for example hard wind affected layers. 

Cornices might grow larger and become more fragile.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, West, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2