Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Light to moderate snow (5-15 cm) on Friday peters out on Saturday. Expect moderate SW to W winds, easing by Saturday afternoon. A second pulse of snow (5-15 cm) is due late Sunday. Freezing level is at valley floor.

As the temperature drops I expect that avalanche activity will continue to slow down. The recent snow, rain, and wind were a great test of buried persistent weaknesses in the snowpack and resulted in a widespread avalanche cycle. The mid-January surface hoar layer was responsible for the majority of the recent avalanche activity in the region, producing numerous avalanches up to size 3.5. However, some deeper persistent layers were also triggered during this avalanche cycle. Reactive wind slabs may be lingering in the alpine and could produce large avalanches where they sit above the surface hoar.

After a recent bout of intense warming and rain, cooler temperatures have left a supportive crust below about 2000 m. At higher elevations, recently formed wind slabs may be found lee to the south-west. Although warming and subsequent cooling have helped strengthen the snowpack, the mid-January surface hoar layer remains a concern and can be found down between 40 and 80 cm. The mid-December surface hoar layer is 80 to 140cm below the surface and appears to be slowly gaining strength.