Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Ridging will bring mostly clear conditions to the region on Sunday with light westerly winds and freezing levels at about 1700m. Light precipitation will commence late Monday intensifying slightly overnight and continuing Tuesday. Winds will be moderate /southwesterly on Monday, switching to light/northwesterly by Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to increase to 1900m on Monday dropping back to 1700m by Tuesday. Confidence: Good for Sunday, fair for Monday/Tuesday.

There was a natural wet avalanche cycle to size 3 on Thursday or Friday that occurred in response to warm temperatures and intermittent solar radiation. I expect ongoing wet snow instabilities throughout the weekend, especially at lower elevations or when solar radiation is strong.

Very warm temperatures have dominated the region in recent days and all but the highest, north-facing slopes saw moist to wet surface conditions. Since Thursday morning, slightly cooler temperatures have allowed light amounts of new snow to fall above about 2000m while rain continued to penetrate and weaken the snowpack at lower elevations. Up to 60cm below the surface, you might find a weak crust interface in the alpine and at treeline. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 200 cm, although avalanches releasing on this layer represent a very low probability-high consequence scenario. Cornices in the region are very large. With spring temperatures, these are more likely to become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release deep layers on slopes below.