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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 18th, 2012–Feb 20th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

We're entering a more active pattern which should persist through the middle of next week.Sun: A ridge of high pressure rebuilds during the day allowing temperatures to cool slightly while winds ease and switch from the SW to NW. A bit of instability from Saturday's storm will produce the odd flurry, but skies should clear in the afternoon. Look for 1500m temps to climb to -4 during the day.Mon/Tue: A few weak systems pass over the region favoring west slopes. Nothing in the flow is particularly well organized, it's the kind of setup that has the potential to bring 2-4 cm a day. Precip totals will be quite variable throughout the region, favoring the west slopes. 1500 m temps: High 0, Low -7

Avalanche Summary

There are isolated reports of Skiers and riders have triggering thin soft windslabs in the alpine up to size 1. New snow sluffing has also been reported.

Snowpack Summary

The new snow layer above the February 09 surface hoar is now about 10-25 cm thick. Some areas have reported that the surface hoar had grown to 50 mm before being buried. Some thin windslab has developed as a result of SW winds Fri/Sat. A melt-freeze crust has developed on solar aspects at all elevations, and on all aspects below about 1400 metres. The mid-pack is generally well settled. There is some concern that large loads like cornices may trigger the Jan. 20th facet layer. Some shallow snowpack areas may continue to have a weak layer of basal facets near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Winds were out of the SW Fri/Sat & are forecast to switch to the NW Sunday, as a result thin new windslabs are present on wind exposed terrain features at and above treeline.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4