Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Clear and cool on Monday and then some clouds move in (with isolated flurries) for the rest of the forecast period.MONDAY: Sunny with increasing cloud in the afternoon / Light east wind / Alpine temperature -6 / Freezing level 1200mTUESDAY: Isolated flurries / Light to moderate southwest wind / Freezing level 1500mWEDNESDAY: Broken skies with isolated flurries / moderate south wind /Freezing level 1600m

On Friday skiers triggered a Size 1.5 wind slab quite low down on a slope - strong winds had transported snow farther than expected.On Thursday a Size 2.5 natural slab avalanche on a west aspect took out trees. The sun came out in force and cornices were failing. See here for this great MIN report.There was a widespread natural avalanche cycle to size 3 on all aspects and elevations from last Wednesday's storm in the areas south of Valemount. Expect the storm slabs to continue to be reactive at upper elevations, especially with more loading from Saturday's storm.

In the south of the region, heavy snow (25 cm in 10 hours) and strong south-west winds (gusts over 60 Km/hr) started late Friday and continued through Saturday. Temperatures also warmed up significantly. The end result: widespread storm slabs and wind slabs at treeline and above with significant cornice growth as well.All this new storm snow (30- 60cm) sits on older windslabs (or soft slabs) at treeline and above. Below 1800m, the new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust from last week's warm storm, and reports so far are that the new snow is bonding well to the old crust.Approximately 100-140 cm below the surface you may find the mid-February persistent weakness. Professionals in the region have warned that the load above this layer has reached a critical amount, particularly where it presents as a crust.Deep persistent weaknesses in the lower third of the snowpack still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller slab avalanches, especially with the warming temperatures and/or intense sunshine on Monday.New snow totals in the north (Wells, Sugar Bowl) have been half to one-third of those in the south and avalanche danger is likely one step lower.