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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 12th, 2013–Jan 13th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Light NW wind. Alpine temperature near -13, warming overnight. No snow.Monday: Moderate NW wind. Alpine temperature near -3. Light snow.Tuesday: Light to moderate W wind. Alpine temperature near -5. No snow.

Avalanche Summary

A natural and human-triggered cycle of size 1-2.5 storm slabs occurred last week. The touchy nature of the buried surface hoar was revealed by skier-remote triggered avalanches, and a skier-triggered size 1 which ran across a flat bench and triggered a size 2 on another slope. These events were in the 1350-1450m elevation band on N/NE aspects in the south of the region. Avalanche activity has now decreased, but human-triggering remains a concern.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow is slowly settling above old snow surfaces including surface hoar (found especially below about 1600 m in sheltered areas) and facets. Where it exists, the buried surface hoar is at a prime depth for human-triggering. Recent winds have left wind slabs in the lee of terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. In areas sheltered from the wind, fast-moving sluff could throw you off your feet or carry you into a terrain trap. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Storm snow is particularly reactive where it overlies buried surface hoar. This weakness may be triggered from a distance and avalanches could be surprisingly large.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs have formed behind terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs. These could be triggered by the weight of a person or snowmobile.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 4