Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 13th, 2012 9:20AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Saturday: 8-12cm of snow / Moderate southwest winds / -12.0 @ 1500mSunday: Scattered cloud with trace amounts of snow / Light northerly winds / -12.0@ 1500mMonday: Trace amounts of snow with a clearing trend / Light to moderate variable winds / -23.0 @ 1500m

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches to report from the last 24 hours.

Snowpack Summary

About 4 days ago strong southwest winds transported the storm snow into reactive windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. I would suspect that these wind slabs have since gained some strength. Since then there has been little in the way of snow or wind and treeline temperatures have been between -8.0 and -12.0.There is a new rain crust below 1500 metres and an old rain crust that is buried down about a metre below the 1600 metre elevation.The mid-pack is reported to be strong, and I have not heard anyone talk about early season layers deep in the snowpack. That being said, there is still a lot of variation due to the strong winds that have accompanied most storms this winter in the region. I would continue to be suspect of thin snowpack areas.Expect new wind slab development with saturday's forecast snow and wind.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Saturday's forecast snow and wind will form sensitive wind slabs to lee and cross-loaded terrain. Larger reactive wind slabs from earlier in the week will have gained some strength.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Cornices

Last week's warm temperatures and strong winds have caused rapid cornice growth which may not be well supported. Try to reduce your exposure beneath these large unstable masses of heavy snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Jan 14th, 2012 8:00AM