Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Cloud and flurries should continue overnight, combined with strong southwest winds and rising freezing levels. Flurries or light snow on Wednesday with strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising up to about 2200 metres. Moderate to heavy snowfall on Thursday with winds gradually decreasing and freezing levels dropping below 1500 metres. Light westerly winds on Friday combined with an overnight freeze down to valley bottoms and periods of light snow.

One size 1.5 natural avalanche was reported on Monday. On Sunday, a skier remotely trigger a size 1 avalanche on a NW aspect from 10m away. The slab was 60cm thick which suggests that it failed on the early January surface hoar layer. Natural loose avalanches up to size 2 were also reported from extreme terrain and did not trigger any slabs below. Widespread natural avalanche activity up to size 3 was reported on Friday and Saturday. The majority of this activity occurred on the early January surface hoar layers and the slabs typically varied from 70-120cm thick. There are also several great Mountain Information Network posts in the Cariboos from the weekend which you should check out. Natural activity tapered off since Saturday but the persistent slab is expected to remain reactive to human triggering for several more days.

New wind slabs are developing in the alpine and at treeline. Wind slabs and recent storm slabs have added load and stress to the already volatile persistent slab. There are a couple of highly reactive layers of surface hoar typically down 70-100cm which have been responsible for numerous recent large avalanches. The persistent slab is ripe for human and natural triggers and is especially touchy at and below treeline. The mid and lower snowpack below these layers is generally well-settled and strong, with any old weak layers considered dormant for now. Snowpack depths are variable and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground.