Skyrocketing temperatures make avalanche forecasters nervous. Deeply buried weak layers could wake up, creating very large avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Bring out the flip flops! A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to bring mainly sunny skies (above valley cloud) with no precipitation for the next three days. A warm southerly flow causes the freezing level to rise as high as 3000 m. Alpine temperatures should be well above 0.For more details check out
http://www.avalanche.ca/weather.
Avalanche Summary
A cycle of size 1-2 avalanches was triggered naturally on Saturday in response to new snow and strong to gale winds. There have been recent very large persistent slabs in the neighbouring North Columbia region. These indicate the possibility of similar conditions in the Cariboos, where the same weak layer is known to exist. Warm temperatures and sunshine could spark a natural avalanche cycle.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 60 cm of recent storm snow has settled to form a soft slab in sheltered areas. Strong to gale southwesterly winds have formed widespread wind slabs in lee features at treeline and in the alpine. Below about 1800 m, recent storm snow may be sitting on a crust. Several touchy layers of surface hoar from early to mid-January are now buried between 70 and 120 cm deep and are variably reactive. In other words, some slopes are difficult to trigger, while remote triggering is still possible on other features. These layers have the potential for wide propagations, and smaller avalanches or cornice fall could step down to one of these layers. Snowpack depths are variable across the region and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground. Forecast warming may increase the reactivity of the persistent slab.
pgoddard,
Avalanche Canada
