Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The frontal system will move across the interior on Thursday bringing moderate snowfall to the Cariboos. A ridge of high pressure builds on Friday and cold, dry conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday.Thursday: Snowfall 15-20 cm, freezing levels may rise as high as 1500m as the warm front crosses the region, moderate SW ridgetop winds gusting up to 60 km/hrFriday: Mostly cloudy and light flurries in the morning, a mix of sun/cloud and drying conditions for the afternoon, treeline temperatures will drop to around -10C in the afternoon, light NW ridgetop windsSaturday: A mix of sun and cloud, treeline temperatures around -10C, light to moderate NW ridgetop winds

Reports of several natural and skier triggered avalanches on Tuesday. Natural avalanches up to size 2 in wind loaded features at treeline on various aspects. Ski cuts and skier accidentals size 1 from small pockets of wind loaded terrain features at treeline. Most of the recent reported activity has been limited to the storm snow and wind loading with depths varying from 20-40cm. However, there has been reports from weekend of very large avalanches releasing deep within the snowpack (1 to 1.5m) in the Cariboos. Also on Tuesday, several very large, deep released avalanches occurred in the Selkirk Mountains. The potential in the Cariboos for very large, deep avalanches remains a major concern, especially with the additional loading on Thursday.

Around 60 cm of new snow has fallen in the last week.  Recent mild temperatures has caused substantial settlement of this new snow. This has created a slab around 20-40cm thick which may overlie softer snow creating an upside-down condition in the upper snowpack.  Areas of the region have seen moderate to strong winds from the SW-NW resulting in variable wind slabs. Expect to find touchy wind slabs in exposed lee terrain at and above treeline. A buried rain crust exists below 1600 m and a couple buried weak layers (surface hoar or facets) are now down 80-100 cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general 150 cm of snow can be found at treeline, with 100-200 cm in the alpine. In many places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season) so there's not a whole lot of snow between riders and the sugary snow (facets) near the ground. The basal facet/crust combo has been recently active in parts of the region and continues to give easy to moderate results in snowpack tests.  This basal weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, may result in very large, destructive avalanches.