Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 28th, 2015 9:17AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

pgoddard, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain. If it snows heavily, danger may reach HIGH. A Special Public Avalanche Warning has been issued for this region.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

On Sunday, expect moderate snow (5-15 cm) and strong SW winds. Snow eases to light amounts on Monday, then the next pulse begins on Monday night , bringing around 5-20 cm snow with moderate to strong SW to NW winds. Freezing levels are between 1800 m and 2000 m, dropping on Tuesday to around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle to size 2.5 was observed on Friday. These were slabs 60-100 cm deep on north aspects, and loose wet avalanches on all aspects.

Snowpack Summary

On Friday, the snow surface became moist to 2800 m in the south, and 2200 m in the north. A few cm of snow may now overlie this moist or refrozen surface, redistributed by SW winds. The mid-March crust is down 60-100 cm and has a poor bond with storm snow above in some locations. A deeper crust/facet layer from mid-February is the one to watch: it is down 80-120 cm and continues producing very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and winds are likely to create touchy storm slabs, especially on features in the lee of the wind.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The persistent weak layer buried mid-February is 80-120 cm below the surface and has been the culprit of many large avalanches recently. Smaller avalanches and cornice failures could also trigger slabs that step down to this layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Mar 29th, 2015 2:00PM