Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Wednesday: A Pacific frontal system starts to affect the interior regions. Cloudy with light snowfall, moderate to strong west winds. Freezing level in the valley bottom.Thursday: Light snowfall, alpine temperatures -7, moderate west winds.Friday: Light snowfall, alpine temperatures -5, freezing level 1100m, winds moderate west and southwest.

Recent avalanche activity from the past 3 days seems to be isolated to a few windslab releases up to size 2.5. These were running within the storm snow in the alpine and at treeline elevations from a variety of aspects. Reports continue to roll in about the extent of the avalanche cycle running to size 3+ from last Thursday and Friday. This is a reminder that the October facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack could still be reactive. Although unlikely, given enough load and/or hitting the sweet spot i.e. thin area, it may be possible to trigger this layer resulting in a large and destructive avalanche.

Up to 50cm of recent new snow has been redistributed by moderate to strong winds from a variety of aspects creating new wind slabs at the tree line elevation and above. This snow lies on top of old wind slabs, a buried rain crust that exists below 1600m and a surface hoar or facet layer that is down 100-150cm deep. Snowpack depths vary, but in general 175 cm of snow can be found at treeline, with 125-300 cm in the alpine. In some places we're still dealing with a relatively thin snowpack (thanks to a windy early season). The basal facet/crust combo (weak sugary snow above and below a crust) near the ground was active in an avalanche cycle last Thursday and Friday. This weakness may be difficult to trigger but if triggered, will result in very large, destructive avalanches.