Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 13th, 2016 8:28AM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

New wind slabs are expected to develop on Sunday afternoon. The Avalanche Danger may increase throughout the day.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A series of weak systems will pass through the region over the forecast period. Expect 5-10cm of new snow on Sunday afternoon, a mix of sun and cloud on Monday and an additional 5-10cm of snow on Tuesday. Ridgetop winds will be extreme from the southwest on Sunday afternoon, strong and northwesterly on Monday, and strong and southwesterly on Tuesday. Freezing levels should hover around 1500m for the forecast period.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday; however, observations were limited. Increasing winds and light amounts of new snow will spark a new round of wind slab activity in higher elevation lee terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A supportive crust (in most places aside from shaded aspects at treeline elevations) and perhaps new surface hoar (where it survived the heat, rain and sun) could be buried by as much as 10-15cm of fresh snow or deeper wind slabs. Avalanche professionals are still monitoring three buried surface hoar layers in the upper 150 cm, with recent reports of hard, but still sudden snowpack test results down around 120cm and 140-170cm.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Touchy fresh pockets of wind-deposited snow are lurking on the downwind side of ridgecrests and terrain features. Expect them to get bigger and touchier throughout the day on Sunday.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid wind loaded terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

A deeply buried weak layer has become less sensitive to human triggering, but can result in very large avalanches. Possible triggers include large cornice falls or periods of warming and solar radiation.

Be cautious around steep open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. >Conditions have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Feb 14th, 2016 2:00PM