Avalanche Forecast

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Mostly clear and cold overnight with moderate Northwest winds and alpine temperatures dropping to about -24. Clear with light Northwest winds on Wednesday with alpine temperatures rising up to about -16. Increasing cloud and a warming trend are expected for Thursday as the winds shift to the Southwest. Snow overnight and during the day on Friday combined with Northwest winds. Confidence is poor for intensity of the Friday storm, hopefully models will agree by tomorrow.

Natural avalanches have been reported up to size 2.0 where the recent storm snow has been transported into a windslab; some of these avalanches have released or stepped down to the mid-December persistent weak layer of surface hoar and crust. Human triggering continues to be likely to very likely due to the storm slab sitting on a hard sliding surface with a weak layer of surface hoar at the interface.

Extensive new windslab development over the last two days in the alpine, at treeline, and also in open areas below treeline as a result of strong Northerly winds. The new windslab may be easy to trigger, and may step down to the persistent weak layer of mid-December surface hoar. The touchy mid-December surface hoar layer is now buried below a 50-90 cm consolidated slab that developed during last weeks storm. Below 2100 m this slab sits on a thick, solid crust/ surface hoar combination and has been acting as a perfect sliding layer. A hard rain crust with facets from early November is buried more than 100 cm down and is currently unreactive, however; triggering from shallow rocky and unsupported terrain remains a concern.