Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cariboos.
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Temperatures are very warm (freezing level peaking near 2500 m) on Thursday and Friday, before cooling on Saturday with the passage of a cold front. Light precipitation is expected on Friday, followed by 5-15 mm precipitation on Saturday. This tapers to flurries on Sunday. Winds are moderate SW, changing to NW on Saturday as the front passes through.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday. On Tuesday, explosives triggered a size 3 avalanche with a slab depth of 200cm. A widespread avalanche cycle occurred on Friday through Monday during the storm. Human-triggering of the persistent slab and/or wind slabs remains possible.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storm snow appears to be settling and bonding with warm temperatures. SW winds have created areas of wind slab on some alpine and treeline lee features. Keep your eyes open for cornices, which may be sensitive to collapsing with the warm temperatures. The late-Jan crust/surface hoar layer, buried up to a metre deep, remains a key concern, as triggering this would produce a surprisingly large avalanche. The mid-January surface hoar is typically down 80-120cm and is unlikely to be triggered, apart from in a thin or rocky snowpack area. The mid-December weak layer is down over 120cm, but was generally unreactive through the storm.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 6
Loose Wet
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 3