Avalanche Forecast

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

We are entering what looks to be a very snowy period. Wednesday night's storm has potential to be quite vigorous for the coast, and a bit of that storm should spill inland. As the associated upper low drops south over the next few days snowfall is expected to continue. Weather models are converging on a solution but this is an incredibly dynamic period and the following should be taken as loose suggestions. If you are craving detail, now is a great time to click on the ACMWF link below.WEDNESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1000 m, strong south/southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow.WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1000 m, 1 to 15 cm of snow, strong to extreme southwest wind. THURSDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1300 m, light to moderate southeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 1100 m, southeast wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

On Monday natural wind slabs in lee terrain were observed near ridgeline to size 2. Isolated sluffing was also observed. On Sunday wind slabs up to size 2 were sensitive to skier triggering on northeast, north and northwest facing features between 1950 and 2100 m. Small wind slabs failed naturally and were human triggered Saturday to size 1 on south and southeast facing features between 1750 and 1900 m.

20 to 50 cm of new snow fell over the weekend accompanied by strong winds that were predominantly out of the south, southwest and west. Wind out of the southwest and west picked up again on Monday forming very soft wind slabs that were reactive to skier traffic. These two wind events have formed widespread wind slabs that likely extend down into treeline elevations. You may find the odd wind slab in open features below treeline too. The new storm and wind slabs rests on the February 23 weak layer that consists of wind hardened snow, facets, a sun crust on solar aspects and surface hoar that is present at and below treeline. Compression tests preformed Monday continue to show resistent planar results at this interface. In the southern portion of the region a widespread crust is down 40 to 80 cm below the surface. Well-consolidated snow exists below the crust.Variable winds in the past month have created cornices on many an alpine ridgeline. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as the strong late-winter sun shines down upon them on clear days.