Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 25th, 2018 4:43PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

kdevine, Avalanche Canada

Cariboos.

Forecast snowfall amounts and freezing levels are uncertain. Expect the hazard to increase throughout the day at all elevations in areas experiencing heavy snowfall, above freezing temperatures or high winds.

Summary

Confidence

Weather Forecast

Significant snowfall amounts, rising freezing levels and strong winds are forecast to begin Sunday night, and last into Tuesday. Forecast snowfall amounts vary throughout the region, with higher amounts forecast in the southern Cariboos.SUNDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 5-10 cm / moderate southerly winds / freezing level 1000mMONDAY - Snow, 10-25 cm / moderate to strong southerly winds / freezing level 1500-2000mTUESDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / light to moderate southerly winds / freezing level 1500-2000m WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy with isolated flurries / light to moderate southerly winds / freezing level 1500m

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche observations have been reported in the region. This may be due to low numbers of field observations rather than a lack of avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm of new snow on Sunday night brings recent storm snow amounts to 25-30 cm. This snow sits on top of a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals) and sun crust on steeper south facing slopes. New snow, wind and rising freezing levels throughout the day will increase the likelihood of triggering avalanches on this layer.At the base of the snowpack there is a crust that formed in late October. There have been very limited reports of this layer showing signs of reactivity in the Cariboos, however with strong winds, rising freezing levels and heavy snowfall amounts, this layer could wake up during this storm. Storm snow avalanches may have the potential to trigger large, full depth avalanches on this layer.Snowpack depths taper quickly with elevation.

Problems

Storm Slabs

25-30 cm of recent snow sits above a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals at upper elevations. The likelihood of triggering this layer will increase with additional snow, wind and warm temperatures.

Be extra cautious around sheltered openings near treeline where surface hoar may be most prominent.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.If triggered, the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 26th, 2018 2:00PM