Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

TUESDAY NIGHT: Storm moving in from the north will deliver 2-8 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, freezing level around 1000 m.WEDNESDAY: 10-20 cm of snow in the north and 5-10 cm in the south, freezing level around 1000 m, strong wind from the southwest. THURSDAY: 20-40 cm of snow with freezing level climbing to 1600 m and extreme wind from the southwest.FRIDAY: Another 10-20 cm of snow, freezing level drops to 800 m, moderate wind from the west.

No new avalanches were reported on Monday, but several skier and snowmobile triggered avalanches were reported on Sunday. There was a report of two skier triggered avalanches in the Zoa peak area near Coquihalla Summit. These were both reported to be up to size 2 and running on a layer of surface hoar buried 40-60 cm deep on a north aspect at treeline. See the MIN report here. An additional avalanche incident was reported by snowshoers in Manning Park. It is suspected to have run on the same weak layer. See the MIN report here.Looking ahead, humans may be still be able to trigger avalanches on this weak layer in southern parts of the region, while a more widespread storm slab problem will develop with the incoming storm.

Fresh storm slabs will start to form on Wednesday as a storm tracks across the region from the north. Wind loaded terrain will be the first to develop reactive slabs.20-30 cm of recent snow covers a widespread weak layer of feathery surface hoar that formed around Christmas. This layer is reported to be most prevalent at the upper end of treeline on north and east aspects in the southern part of the region (e.g. Coquihalla Summit and Manning Park). In the north part of the region, another weak layer composed of facets and/or surface hoar is buried 100 to 150 cm deep. This weak layer appears most prominent around treeline (up to 2000 m). There have not been reports of avalanche activity on this layer for the past week, but field observations suggest slab avalanches may still be possible on this layer where it exists.