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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2019–Jan 18th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Recent warm days and cool nights have strengthened the mid and upper snowpack, but changes to the deep persistent weakness will be much slower. A conservative approach is warranted.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be cloudy with sunny periods, isolated flurries, trace of snow, Alpine high temperature -7 °C, and wind southwest 15-30 km/h. Saturday will be periods of snow, accumulation 17 cm, Low -8 °C and High -6 °C, wind southwest 30 km/h gusting to 90 km/h. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions vary from a thin crust on steep solar aspects, 5-10mm surface hoar in sheltered areas, good powder skiing in sheltered locations, and wind effect in exposed areas from recent moderate-strong SW winds. A generally strong mid snowpack overlies the deep persistent weaknesses of facets and depth-hoar. 

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Thursday and nothing new reported. No new activity was observed on Wednesday's patrol.Be a part of the Avalanche Forecasting team by reporting your field trip this weekend on Avalanche Canada's Mountain Information Network.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Use caution in shallow snowpack areas where deep weakness would be more reactive to a human trigger. An avalanche of this nature would be large with severe consequences.
Avoid thin, rocky or sparsely-treed slopes.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 4

Wind Slabs

Recently formed wind slabs appear to bonding well to the snowpack below. Light winds and strong diurnal swings have reduced the reactivity of this problem yet it will exist on locations where wind has either pressed or loaded the slope.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2