Avalanche Forecast

Low - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

A major warming event is forecast for Thursday with freezing levels climbing to at least 2500 m. A storm system is expected to arrive Thursday night which will replace the warm air and linger into Friday morning. 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, light to moderate SW wind, freezing level low around 1500 m/high around 2000 m. 

Thursday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high near 2500 m in the north, 3000 m in the south.

Thursday night: Precipitation 5-10 mm, strong SW wind, freezing level 2500 m dropping to around 1300 m.

Friday: Snowfall 5-10 cm in the morning, a chance of sunny breaks in the afternoon, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high around 1600 m.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries, light to moderate W wind, freezing level high around 1000 m.

An early report from Wednesday includes three explosive-triggered size 1.5-2 wind slabs in the north of the region on northwest and north aspects at 2200 m.  

On Tuesday, a skier remotely triggered two size 1 storm slabs from 2 m away on a northeast aspect at 2000 m in the north of the region. These were 30 cm thick and failed on the underlying melt-freeze crust. In the Coquihalla area, a few natural size 1 storm slabs were reported. 

Several older avalanches were also reported on Tuesday which had occurred during the storm including evidence of a natural cycle up to size 2.5 in the north of the region and a few natural cornice releases which triggered size 2 slabs failing on the underlying crust. 

The recent storm produced around 30-50 cm of new snow in the north of the region and around 40-70 cm in the south of the region. This storm snow has buried a firm crust which extends to mountain top on solar aspects and to around 2200 m on northerly aspects. This crust has been the sliding surface for many of the recent storm slab avalanches. Strong to extreme southwest wind during the storm has redistributed the new storm snow in exposed, high elevation terrain forming wind slabs and developing large cornices. Windward slopes have been scoured down to the crust and the alpine snow surface is expected to be highly variable. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded. 

• Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
• The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
• Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
• Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.