Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 1st, 2014 8:26AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Summary

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy with flurries increasing in intensity throughout the day with 10-15cm of accumulation by Friday morning. Freezing levels in valley bottoms and alpine winds increasing to strong southwesterlies by the evening. Friday: Snow with another 5-10cm of accumulation (or more east of the divide), light to moderate northerly alpine winds and freezing levels in valley bottoms Saturday: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, moderate northwesterly alpine winds and treeline temperatures around -10.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported. Ski cutting on Tuesday near Crowsnest Pass produced no results.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine areas are highly wind-affected with scoured areas, sastrugi, and deep deposits. At treeline, the snowpack is generally well settled, but definitely more stable in the Crowsnest and Elk Valley North than in the Flathead and Elk Valley South where the late-November persistent weakness of surface hoar, crust, and/or facets down 30-70cm has reached the tipping point for rider triggering in a few areas. Check out this video of a recent snowpack test on this layer.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs that formed over the past couple of days are likely limited to the immediate leeward side of ridge crests, but widespread fresh touchy wind slabs are expected to start forming Thursday afternoon.

Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

A persistent weakness buried late-November is primed for human-triggered avalanches primarily in the Flathead and Elk Valley South areas.

Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.>Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 5

Valid until: Jan 2nd, 2014 2:00PM