Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations on Tuesday

A well-embedded ridge of high pressure will maintain a mix of sun and cloud for the forecast period. Ridgetop winds will be generally light, while freezing levels will sit at about 2200m on Wednesday and Thursday,  and then climb to about 2700m on Friday.

At the time of publishing this bulletin on Tuesday there were some reports of smaller loose wet avalanches, although observations were very limited. The sun will become the main driver for avalanche activity throughout the forecast period. Although warming will promote settlement and strengthening within the recent storm snow, loose wet avalanches and cornice falls will become the most common avalanche type. Another concern, however, remains very isolated yet destructive releases on deeper weak layers which formed earlier in the season. Avalanches on these layers could run surprisingly long distances, and may be triggered by a cornice fall, a surface avalanche in motion or extended periods of warming.

New snow and wind on Monday formed storm slabs which were especially deep on the east side of the divide. Reports suggest warming has promoted settlement and strengthening within the new snow. The current warming trend has also promoted a daily melt-freeze cycle on solar aspects at higher elevations, and on all aspects below treeline. About 15-60cm below the surface you'll likely find a widespread hard crust, although reports suggest a reasonable bond has developed between the crust and the overlying slab.  Deeply buried weak layers near the ground are becoming hard to find, but may remain sensitive to triggering from significant warming or with large loads such as cornice fall. Large cornices overhang alpine slopes and will become increasingly weak with forecast solar radiation.