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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 19th, 2021–Mar 20th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

With cooling trend and small amounts of precipitation in the forecast we are facing generally safe avalanche conditions.Be mindful of the potential for low probability high consequence scenario.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Accumulation: 4 cm. Alpine: High -6 °C. Ridge wind west: 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h. Freezing level: 1400 metres.Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Precipitation: Trace. Alpine: High -9 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 15 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 5cm of new snow becoming moist on solar aspects and creating thin slabs in ALP lees. Warm temps and high solar input have created sun crust on solar aspects TL and below. Snowpack becoming isothermal 1700m and below on all aspects. Generally strong mid-pack with exception in shallow areas.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported today, however, there have been reports of sporadic large avalanches in isolated ALP features in the last couple weeks. These slides are believed to be triggered by large cornice failures and ran in heavily wind loaded features with wide propagation. Beware of low probability, high consequence scenario

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Varied sensitivity on solar aspects, likelihood increases on the steepest slopes. It may be possible to trigger deeper instabilities once initiated.

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Use extra caution on solar slopes or if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

More activity noted at this layer, mostly initiated by large loads (cornices) in steep terrain.

  • Consider that avalanches may run further than expected as they entrain this loose surface snow.
  • Watch for moist surface snow over crust on steeper solar aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices can be extremely destructive alone or, may initiate deeper layers in the snowpack below.

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating, so travel early on exposed slopes.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3