Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather. Uncertainty is due to limitations in the field data.

Saturday night: Snow turning to rain in the early am. 5-15 cm with enhancements in the range of 10-25 cm for the Lizard range. Southwest winds building to strong. Alpine temperature around -2 C. Freezing level rising to 2500 m.

Sunday: Wet snow and rain, 20-40 mm with enhancements in the range of 40-60 mm for the Lizard range. Strong southwest wind easing slightly in the afternoon. Alpine temperature high +3 C. Freezing level dropping to 2500 to 2000 m through the day. 

Monday: Tapering flurries, 10-15 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature high 0 C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Tuesday: Isolated flurries, 5-10 cm. Moderate southwest wind. Alpine temperature high -1 C. Freezing level 1800 m.

A natural avalanche cycle occurred overnight Thursday-Friday, large storm slab avalanches (size 2-2.5) in alpine and upper treeline features were reported Friday morning. Through the day, explosives triggered large (size 2) storm slab avalanches.

We are expecting loose wet avalanches as the next system soaks the upper snowpack with more wet snow and rain.

A mix of wet snow and rain continues to soak a half meter of recent dense, wet snow sitting over a variety of wind pressed surfaces and a thick mid-November rain crust. Moist snow is still found below the crust and to the ground.

Snowpack depths range from 40-70 cm at treeline elevations. Expect to find a deeper snowpack at higher elevations and in wind-loaded areas. Snowpack depths decrease rapidly below 1500 m.

Early season hazards are very real right now, be wary of thin/shallow snowpacks, rocks, stumps, creeks, and other sharks hidden under fresh snow.

• Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
• Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Avalanches could run full path.