Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 26th, 2015 8:30AM

The alpine rating is below threshold, the treeline rating is below threshold, and the below treeline rating is below threshold. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Avalanche Canada jlammers, Avalanche Canada

Warming forecast for the next few days will increase the Avalanche Danger, especially at higher elevations. If you are out in the mountains, please post your observations to the MIN

Summary

Weather Forecast

The dry ridge of high pressure will persist throughout the forecast period bringing clear skies at higher elevations and cloud in the valleys. A layer of warm air aloft will develop on Friday and into the weekend with above-freezing temperatures expected above 1700m. Valley temperatures should remain below freezing. Ridgetop winds will remain mainly moderate from the northeast.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, ski cutting and explosives triggered several wind slab avalanches up to size 1.5. The avalanches are sliding on a firm rain crust from mid-November. Slabs were typically 5-15cm thick and were reported on a variety of aspects. These types of wind slabs may persist for a few days until temperatures warm up at higher elevations. With warming forecast for the next few days, I would add loose wet avalanche activity to the mix on steep, sun-exposed slopes .

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of recent snowfall overlies a highly variable surface which may include surface hoar and/or facetted snow, a thick rain crust which exists to at least treeline elevation, a sun crust on steep south facing slopes, or wind-affected snow in exposed alpine terrain. At treeline elevations, the snowpack appears to typically be 1-1.5m deep. There is a thick crust from early-November in the middle of the snowpack. The limited reports we have received suggest that this crust is well bonded but you should investigate the snowpack in your local area before committing yourself to avalanche terrain. Wind slabs exist on a variety of aspects due to shifting winds and may persist for a few days.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Recent storm accumulations have likely been redistributed into fresh wind slabs at higher elevations. Due to the irregular loading pattern, watch for wind slabs in unsuspecting locations.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Dry

An icon showing Loose Dry
Unseasonably warm temperatures and sun will increase the chances of loose wet avalanche activity on steep, sun-exposed slopes in the alpine and at treeline.
Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 27th, 2015 2:00PM

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