Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
The next few days are forecast to have a stable weather pattern with primarily cool and dry conditions. Expect to see a change in the weather mid week.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, light wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -7 C.
SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.
MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate wind from the west, alpine high temperature -9 C.
TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, light to moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperature -6 C.
Avalanche Summary
Recent avalanche activity has primarily been limited to small wind slab avalanches (size 1) triggered with explosives. On Thursday there was a report of a size 2.5 storm slab avalanche on a northeast aspect in the alpine, which scoured down to a crust near the base of the snowpack.
Snowpack Summary
Recent new snow and wind has likely formed fresh wind slabs at upper elevations. In sheltered areas 30-40 cm of snow from last weekend is gradually settling. Crust layers from November and October can be found 40-100 cm below the surface. These layers produced large avalanches with explosive triggers last weekend, but since then have appeared to gain strength. Large avalanches on these layers may still be possible to trigger in steep rocky terrain. Snowpack depths range between 50-100 cm at higher elevations and taper rapidly below treeline.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Triggering wind slab avalanches is most likely at higher elevations where the wind has redistributed recent new snow into the lee of terrain features.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Persistent Slabs
The likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on one of the crusts and weak layers in the lower snowpack is gradually reducing, but the consequence of doing so is high.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3