Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2012 4:33PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices, Deep Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.

A.L. Horton, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Cold temperatures may lock down the snowpack in the short term. Cornice fall is a real concern as it has proven that the basal facets are still susceptible to triggering by large loads.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Snowpack Summary

Avalanche Summary

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable on Monday

Problems

Cornices

Cornices have developed above wind-loaded features. Several avalanches (size 2 to 3) have been triggered by both human-caused and natural cornice fall. These large loads have released slopes down to the basal facets in the alpine.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Large loads (large cornice fall) have been able to trigger this weakness recently on fatter wind-loaded slopes in the alpine.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Wind Slabs

Moderate to Strong Northerly winds have developed extensive wind slab on lee slopes and have cross loaded gulley features. A stiff wind slab is present on almost all slopes. There may have enough mass in these slabs to release the basal facets.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2012 4:00PM