Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Triggering avalanches is likely on freshly wind loaded slopes. Seek out sheltered terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries and up to 5 cm of new snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level climbing to 1500 m in the western Cariboos and 1000 m in the eastern Cariboos.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy skies with isolated flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow, light wind from the south, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend there were some isolated reports of human triggered wind slab avalanches. They were mostly small (size 1) avalanches in the top 20 cm of new snow, although one size 2 slab was triggered by a rider on a northeast aspect near Valemount and another size 2 slab was triggered by a cornice fall. The addition of more snow since then has increased the potential size of wind slab avalanches. The last report of a persistent slab avalanche was on Feb 12 near Blue River.

Snowpack Summary

Flurries throughout the day on Tuesday will bring recent storm totals to 10 to 25 cm of fresh snow, with the greatest accumulations around Blue River. This snow covers a wide variety of hard surfaces, including heavily wind-affected snow on alpine slopes and a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes, as well as some large feathery surface hoar crystal in sheltered areas. Two layers of melt-freeze crusts and/or surface hoar can be found 50 to 100 cm deep, but we have seen declining amounts of evidence that these layers still remain a problem in the Cariboos. We recommend extra caution around freshly loaded slopes in the Blue River / Clearwater area where these layers may still be possible to trigger.

Terrain and Travel

Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Steady winds will redistribute fresh snow (15 to 25 cm) and build reactive wind slabs on any exposed terrain, lee features, and around ridgelines. Use increased caution around treeline or alpine features where these slabs may overlay weak snow, sun crusts, or hard wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

In southeastern parts of the region (e.g. Blue River and Clearwater) it may still be possible to trigger persistent slab avalanches on weak layers found 50 to 100 cm deep. The most suspect terrain is steep convex openings at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 2 - 3