Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 17th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
ahanna,
Avalanche Canada
Ease into terrain carefully on Tuesday. Storm slabs likely remain triggerable, especially in wind loaded features. Investigate the bond of recent snow and tune into any signs of instability such as cracking or recent avalanches.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
Monday night: Clearing. Moderate SW wind easing to light and shifting NW. Treeline temperature around -12 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Tuesday: Mainly sunny. Light NW wind. Treeline high around -8 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Wednesday: Mainly sunny. Moderate southerly wind. Treeline high around -10 °C. Freezing level valley bottom.
Thursday: Snowfall 5-10 cm. Strong SW wind. Treeline high around -5 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Sunday, some minor sluffing was observed with skier traffic in steep terrain. On Saturday, size 1 wind slabs were reactive to ski cuts. A couple of large persistent slab avalanches size 2-2.5 were observed near Blue River, suspected to have run naturally during the warm storm Thursday, during a natural avalanche cycle with storm slabs up to size 3.
Snowpack Summary
20-40 cm of new snow sits atop an upper snowpack consisting of warm, well settled snow containing a couple of layers of surface hoar in sheltered areas, and/or a thin breakable crusts observed as high as 1800 m.
A layer of facets from early January may be found down 40-80 cm but has not been reactive recently.
South of Blue River, the early December crust/facet interface is now typically down 80-150 cm, but as deep as 200 cm in wind loaded terrain. It consists of faceted grains above a decomposing crust formed by the Atmospheric River rain event at the end of November. Natural avalanches ran on this layer as recently as Thursday during the warm storm. Heavy triggers like natural cornice falls and storm slab avalanches may still have potential to step down to this layer resulting in very large avalanches. This snowpack feature is not found north of Valemount.
Terrain and Travel
- Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
- Start with simple well supported terrain below treeline and gather information before stepping out.
- Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
- Investigate the bond of the recent snow
Problems
Storm Slabs
Rapidly cooling temperatures have helped stabilize the recent storm snow at lower elevations. Slabs may remain reactive in wind loaded terrain features at upper elevations where the snow fell dry.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 18th, 2022 4:00PM
