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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 21st, 2017–Jan 22nd, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Conditions are primed for people triggering avalanches. Don't let the lure of deep powder draw you into terrain that's inappropriate for the conditions.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather and seasonal temperatures for Sunday; a mix of sun and cloud for early next week. SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, local accumulations 5-10cm near Whistler with more possible in southern areas. Moderate southeasterly wind and freezing level around 1200m. MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, light northerly wind and freezing level around 1100m. TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, light northwesterly wind and freezing level around 1200m.

Avalanche Summary

We are still receiving reports of skier (accidental) triggered Size 1 to 1.5 avalanches in the recent storm snow at treeline and higher. Cornices have also been touchy at ridge crests.  Avalanche control work with explosives resulted in storm slab and cornice releases to Size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Rapid snow and wind loading occurred during the week. The storm snow fell in fluctuating freezing levels, creating storm snow weaknesses. By Friday morning another 15 cm of new snow brought storm snow totals to 70-140cm, which has been redistributed by southerly winds. Early last week we had rain up to 2200m near Whistler, while in other zones like the upper Callaghan it was 35 cm or more of fresh snow. The rain (or snow high in the alpine) started to saturate and load a wide variety of previous surface conditions. Simply put, the upper snowpack is extremely variable with weaknesses within and under the recent storm snow. Of most recent concern is touchy pockets of wind slab that developed Friday on northwesterly features above 2000m.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow is bonding poorly to the previous snow surface. Expect avalanche likelihood and size to increase with increased snow and wind-loading. Slabs will be particulary deep and touchy on wind-loaded northerly aspects near ridge crests.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Use caution in lee areas. New snowfall mixed with wind loading is creating Wind Slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

Watch out for touchy pockets of wind slabs on exposed north through easterly features near ridge crests, and cross-loaded southeasterly gullies at treeline.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3