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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 7th, 2016–Feb 8th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Rockies.

We're dealing with a complex snow pack and a significant warming trend. Solar radiation will drive the avalanche conditions. Expect avalanche hazard to rise rapidly when the sun comes out.

Confidence

Low - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

No precipitation is expected for the forecast period. A strong temperature inversion will develop early on Monday with an above freezing layer forming in the alpine as warm air overrides cool air trapped in the valleys. Valley cloud will linger although there is some uncertainty as to how high it will reach. MONDAY: clouds in the alpine clearing through the day, freezing level rising to 3500m, light westerly winds. TUESDAY: sunny in the alpine, a freezing level of 3500m, moderate westerly winds. WEDNESDAY: sunny with scattered clouds, a freezing level of 2800m, moderate westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

We have limited observations from upper elevations however fresh wind slabs were reported to be reactive to ski cutting on Saturday. In the north of the regions conditions are likely to be similar to K-country right now where several large (size 2-3) skier triggered avalanches released in wind loaded features over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Strong south west winds have resulted in widespread wind effect, forming deep stiff wind slabs at treeline and above, as well as significant cornice growth at ridgeline. In some areas you may find a supportive crust down 30cm that extends up to around 1900m. A layer of buried surface hoar can be found between 50 and 100cm down and remains a concern. The snowpack rests on a weak crust/facet layer from early December.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Warming could increase the sensitivity of wind slabs and will weaken cornices. If the sun gets intense and the upper snowpack becomes moist, both loose and slab avalanches are more likely to gain significant mass as they run.
Stay well back from cornices.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up. >

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Collapsing cornices or a small avalanche in motion could step down to a buried weak layer.
Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 3 - 5