Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Rockies.
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Flurries for Friday then moderate snowfall on Sunday. Friday: 2-3 cm new snow expected with moderate to strong southwesterly ridgetop winds. Freezing level around 1200 m. Saturday, no snow until the evening; during the day there should be some sunshine, especially in the morning. Freezing level around 1400 m. Sunday: 5-10 cm new snow expected with freezing levels going to around 2000 m. Ridgetop winds gusting to 80 km/h from the southwest.
Avalanche Summary
No new reports of avalanches from the region on Tuesday or Wednesday morning.
Snowpack Summary
Surface hoar has grown on top of 10-20 cm loose dry snow that has been sluffing readily on a thick hard supportive rain crust that extends into alpine elevations. In the alpine, winds have been conducive to blowing this low density snow into thin wind slabs in exposed lee areas. At treeline and below, the near surface crust is effectively bridging triggers from penetrating to deeper persistent weaknesses that formed earlier in the season. However, on alpine slopes above the recent rain line poorly bonded crusts, facets, and/or buried surface hoar may be susceptible to triggers. Professionals are still concerned with a buried crust from November, down 50-70 cm, that could be triggered by large loads.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Dry
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 3