Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

A high-pressure system off the coast will bring generally cooler, more seasonal-like temperatures and clearing to the region.

Wednesday/ Thursday: Mainly sunny and alpine temperatures near -7. Ridgetop wind 25km/hr from the West. Slight alpine temperature inversion. Freezing levels valley bottom.

Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperatures near -5 and freezing levels 1000 m. Ridgetop wind light from the southwest.

On Tuesday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 was reported from the lizard range. Natural avalanche activity may taper off a bit but the snowpack remains primed for human triggering. 

Please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network. Thank you to those that have already submitted this winter!

 

30-50 cm of recent storm snow blanketed the region by Tuesday morning. Storm slabs will likely be reactive, especially where the wind stiffens the new snow. Deeper slabs will be found on lee slopes.

A persistent slab 80-130 cm thick now sits on the early December crust. There is increasing evidence that this persistent weak layer, with facetted crystals and surface hoar crystals above and/or below it is reaching a tipping point. 

Deeper in the snowpack are two hard melt-freeze crusts that formed in November that may have some weak crystals around them. There is uncertainty if and where in the region this may be a problem. 

• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
• Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
• Shooting cracks, whumphs and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.