Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 31st, 2021 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.
mark herbison,
Weather forecasts do not agree on snowfall amounts, but winds will be strong and temps will rise over the next few days.
Dial back your exposure and enjoy sheltered pow turns.
If you find 30cm or more of new snow, consider the danger rating as High.
Summary
Weather Forecast
The weather forecasts vary on snowfall amounts, but we can expect 5-25cm by Monday morning with an additional 10-35cm by Tuesday morning. Ridge top winds will be strong (40-60km/hr) from the South West. Temperatures will gradually rise, with an alpine high of -5 and a freezing level of 1700m. The storm tapers off by late Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
5-15cm of snow in the past 24hrs brings the storm total to 15-40cm, with the most in the southern part of the region. The storm snow sits over facets in sheltered areas and over previous wind effect in exposed alpine and tree line areas. The mid-pack is well settled and unreactive to stability tests. The Nov crust/facets are near the ground.
Avalanche Summary
Developing soft storm slab is reactive to skier triggering in steep terrain and on convex rolls seen up to size 1.5 on Saturday. Lots of natural dry loose avalanche activity out of steep terrain size1-1.5 over the last few days.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs are expected to form as snowfall amounts add up, winds remain strong from the SW and temps gradual rise, aiding in the settlement of the new snow into a slab. This problem will be most prevalent in lee features and on steep convex terrain
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming reactive slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
15 to 40 cm of storm snow (and more on the way) is sitting on a facetted interface and is sluffing easily in steep terrain. This problem is most pronounced in confined gullies, couloirs and steep terrain.
- Be careful of loose dry power sluffing in steep terrain.
- Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 1st, 2021 4:00PM
