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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 29th, 2022–Mar 30th, 2022
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Overnight refreezing of the snowpack may be poor. If you find wet and heavy surface snow in the morning minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain as wet avalanches are more likely. 

Watch for changing conditions throughout the day. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear skies with light southwest winds. Freezing levels drop to 1000 m overnight. 

WEDNESDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with moderate southwest winds (strong gusts possible). Flurries begin in the afternoon. Freezing levels around 2000, alpine high +4. 

THURSDAY: 5cm possible overnight. A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate westerly winds. Isolated flurries possible. Freezing levels peak at 1500 m, alpine highs of +1.

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light southwest winds. Freezing levels reach 1800 m. Alpine highs of +4. 

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, loose wet avalanches were reported to size 1, mostly from steep terrain features. Wet avalanche activity is expected to continue during this warm weather pattern. 

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is going through a daily melt-freeze cycle. A crust exists on all aspects to around 2000 m, and into the alpine on solar aspects. Warm temperatures and sun are softening or breaking down the crust during the day and creating moist snow. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels. 

The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

The snowpack may have little chance to recover overnight as freezing levels remain high. Warm temperatures and sun throughout the day will also quickly soften surface snow. 

Pay close attention to how thick and supportive the surface crust is throughout the day. Minimize your exposure to slopes with wet and heavy snow. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2