Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 6th, 2022–Apr 7th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Keep an eye on the snow surface, as it gets moist with warming and solar input the size and likelihood of avalanches will increase.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: No new snow expected. Low of -4 at 1600 m. Light to moderate west winds.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with no new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 2100 m.

Friday: Stormy with up to 5 cm of snow in the alpine and rain below. Strong southwest winds and freezing levels around 2100 m.

Saturday:Stormy with up to 5 cm of new snow expected. Moderate southwest winds and freezing levels around 1500 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days ski cutting and explosive control produced storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 in the alpine and treeline. Several size 1.5 natural storm slab and dry loose avalanches were also observed.

We suspect that wet slab and wet loose avalanches could occur on all aspects and elevations except high north terrain as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out. Natural cornice falls will likely also increase.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25 cm of previous snow has formed slabs at treeline and above. Below this a crust exists on all aspects to mountain top . Moist snow will be observed on all aspects and elevations except high north terrain as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out. 

 The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet slab and wet loose avalanches will likely increase in size and sensitivity to triggering as the freezing level rises and the sun comes out. The underlying crust will make a good sliding surface and may result in greater propagation.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

The likelihood of natural cornice falls could increase with solar input. Avoid traveling on slopes with cornices looming above.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs will likely be found on exposed terrain at treeline and alpine. Previous strong wind means that wind slabs may be found further down slope than expected. Wind slabs may be sensitive to rider traffic due to the underlying crust.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2