Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Wednesday night: Cloudy, scattered snow with up to 5 cm possible, moderate northwest winds, alpine temperature -8 C.

Thursday: Cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light southwest winds, alpine high temperature -5 C.

Friday: Partly cloudy, light south winds, alpine high temperature -6 C.

Saturday: Decreasing cloud, up to 5 cm of snow overnight, light northeast winds, alpine high temperature -6 C.  

During the weekend storm, numerous small to very large (size 1.5-3.5) avalanches released naturally in the storm snow. These avalanches primarily occurred on leeward aspects at treeline and alpine elevations. Below tree line, wet loose avalanches were releasing naturally during the warm temperatures on Friday.

With continuous stormy weather over the past week, operators have reported several very large (size 2.5-4) avalanches breaking on deeper weak layers. Wind slab avalanches or cornice fall may have the potential to step-down to this layer.

Ongoing snowfall since the weekend storm has totaled 20-40 cm. Human-triggered avalanches may be possible where this snow is being drifted by wind onto leeward features at upper elevations. Cornices are large and looming and may be reaching their breaking point.

40-60 cm of snow fell during the weekend storm above 1700 m. Higher snow totals fell in the southeastern parts of the region. Strong winds originating from the southwest and shifting to the northwest redistributed the snow onto lee aspects near and above treeline and accelerated cornice growth. Check out this MIN and this MIN for a helpful illustration of these conditions. During a warming event Saturday night, rain saturated snow surfaces up to around 1700 m that have since formed a crust.

The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong, however there is a weak layer of surface hoar currently buried 70 to 150 cm deep. This layer has shown signs of instability in the region on slopes between 1700-2400 m, and it may require more time to heal.

• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
• Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
• If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.