Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 18th, 2020 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Watch for patterns of wind transport to navigate around wind slabs at higher elevations, but this isn't the whole story. Recent large avalanches on deeply buried persistent weak layers highlight the need for conservative terrain selection and diligent group management.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate -
Weather Forecast
Saturday night: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light to moderate southwest winds.
Sunday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -2.
Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light south winds. Alpine high temperatures around 0. Possible mild temperature inversion.
Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Light south winds. Alpine temperatures cooling to around -4.
Avalanche Summary
Reports from Thursday and Friday included numerous observations of small and quite large (size 1-2.5) storm slabs and wind slabs releasing naturally, with skier traffic, ski cuts, and explosives throughout the region. Activity was represented on all aspects and elevations and crown fractures ranged widely, from 10-70 cm.
No new persistent slab avalanches were observed in the past few days, but this region has been a hot spot for recent persistent slab avalanche activity. A number of large natural avalanches up to size 3 were reported on east, southeast and south facing slopes above 2000 m in the Rossland area Monday with crowns up to 100-150 cm in depth.
In the rest of the region on Monday both natural and explosive controlled avalanches up to size 2.5 were observed on all aspects above 1800 m. Many avalanches failed on the December 27th Surface Hoar and one avalanche on a north/northeast facing slope at 1800 m involved the mid November facets.
Snowpack Summary
Stormy weather over the past several days brought 35 to 65 cm of snow to the region. Each snowfall and interval in between has been characterized by variable wind ranging from moderate to strong and shifting from south to north and back again.
As a result, higher elevations have formed a variable array of old and new, fresh and buried wind slabs across all aspects while sheltered lower elevations have seen mainly increasing depths of low density snow.
As new snow continues to accumulate, concern is increasing for weak layers of surface hoar found around 70 to 130 cm deep. These layers have been active as recently as Monday and may reach a more widespread tipping point, even though they are gradually gaining strength. These layers are especially concerning in steep, sheltered, large terrain features and shallow rocky areas.
The base of the snowpack is also weak in parts of the region where it consists of sugary faceted snow around a melt-freeze crust.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
- Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
- Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
Problems
Wind Slabs
A steady supply of new snow and variable winds have formed wind slabs on a wide range of aspects at higher elevations. Our most recent winds have been from the south, meaning north aspects may hold the newest, touchiest slabs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
Several persistent weak layers are buried in the snowpack. It is possible for humans to trigger them, or for storm or wind slab avalanches to step down to them and form very large avalanches. Avalanche observations on deeply buried weak layers have recently been elevated in our region.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 19th, 2020 5:00PM
