Avalanche Forecast
Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island.
Watch for changing conditions as you travel through different aspects and elevations. Expect drier and more reactive snow at higher elevations, especially in wind-affected terrain. At low elevations, surface conditions may remain moist - creating ideal conditions for wet avalanche activity.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
A natural cycle of loose and slab avalanche activity occurred throughout the storm to size 1.5. Explosive control work on Thursday produced avalanches to size 1.5.
Terrain that experienced sunny breaks on Friday also saw increased natural activity within the storm snow.
Snowpack Summary
Below 1000 m rainfall has saturated the snowpack. Moist surface snow will most likely remain as rainfall continues at low elevations.
Above 1000m, between 30 and 50 cm of storm snow can be found sitting with higher accumulations towards the west coast. Above 1500 m snow is mostly dry and has been redistributed into deeper deposits on north-facing terrain features by strong southerly winds. Between 1000-1500 m a mix of dry and moist snow can be found, with a thin mid-storm melt-freeze crust in areas.
The storm snow sits over a melt freeze crust at mid elevations, and over settling dry snow at high elevations on shaded slopes. The middle and lower snowpack are strong and well-bonded.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Cloudy with snow starting late evening, 10-15 cm possible by morning. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels around 1000 m.
Saturday
Snow returns, 10-15 cm. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing levels around 1000 m.
Sunday
Snowfall continues around 20 cm is possible above the snow line. Strong to extreme southerly winds. Freezing levels rise towards 1500 m, while heavy snowfall is occurring, snow is expected above 1000 m.
Monday
Cloudy with light southwest winds. No snowfall expected. Freezing levels around 1000 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Dry and wind-affected storm snow continues to accumulate at higher elevations.
At low elevations where precipitation fell mostly as rain, wet avalanches are possible. Back off slopes that hold wet or slushy surface snow.
If you travel further west, expect higher storm snow accumulations and increased reactivity.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2