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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 14th, 2018–Mar 15th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Variable amounts of new snow are expected across the region, mostly at treeline and alpine elevations.  Treat the hazard as higher if local snow amounts are substantially more than forecasted.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, light northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1400 m.FRIDAY:  Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 1400 m.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, light to moderate northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread loose wet avalanche activity to size 1.5 was observed on southerly slopes on Tuesday.  Loose wet avalanche activity is expected to reduce with the cooling temperatures.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will fall on a melt-freeze crust produced with the recent warm air temperatures, sun, and rain.  On shady aspects at high elevations, new snow may fall on lingering wind slabs in lee features and loose dry snow in sheltered features.Deeper in the snowpack, the mid-December and late November weak layers are composed of crusts and sugary facets, which are down 200-300 cm. These layers have been dormant but may be awoken by a large trigger, such as a cornice fall.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecasted snowfall amounts are variable across the region. Assess the snow accumulation and treat the hazard as higher if local amounts exceed 20 cm.
Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow may form touchy slabs.Keep an eye out for localized areas of enhanced snowfall, particularly on eastern slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2