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Avalanche Forecast

Mar 12th, 2021–Mar 13th, 2021
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Caution with rising freezing levels as steep solar slopes and failing cornices will be of most concern in the next few days.

Weather Forecast

Saturday will be sunny with cloudy periods, no new snow and alpine high of -1 °C. Ridge wind southwest: 10-20 km/h. Freezing level: 1900 metres.Sunday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -3 °C, High 1 °C. Mostly light ridge winds. Freezing level: 2300 metres.

Snowpack Summary

High solar input have created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at TL and below. Expect this condition to increase in elevation with rising freezing levels. SW winds have redistributed the snow pack at TL and ALP. The mid pack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow areas where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

Patrol in the Icefields  area reported no new avalanches on Friday.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Originally formed on weak Feb 20th facets. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with rising temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices weakened by the warmer temperatures will have the potential to trigger slabs below.

  • If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could trigger slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

As the mercury slowly rises above 0 and the sun comes out, solar slopes will loose strength. Caution with your timing when traveling on/under these features. Best time to travel is early while its frozen solid.

  • Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Aspects: South, South West, West.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3